John Koudounis, President and CEO of Calamos Investments, recently discussed how tariff concerns are overshadowing key pro-growth policies in an interview on Fox News.
Speaking on current market conditions, Koudounis emphasized a broader strategy that he believes is unfolding—one tied not just to trade policy but to the government’s looming refinancing needs.
Koudounis argued that the real approach might not be a tariff war but rather a yield war.
“I think a lot of people have overreacted […] there’s a bigger strategy at play here. Whether it’s the president sounding protectionist or something closer to a ‘yield strategy,’ it’s worth looking deeper.”
According to Koudounis, the U.S. government is approaching a critical refinancing wave, with approximately $9 trillion in debt issued during the near-zero interest rate environment needing to be rolled over by the end of 2026. He criticized the previous administration for relying on short-term bonds and bills rather than locking in long-term rates through instruments like 100-year bonds.
“Every basis point shaved off today saves billions in interest on the national debt,” he explained. “Back in January, the 10-year yield was at 4.60%. Today, it’s under 3.98%, and some are now predicting 3%. That drop isn’t accidental—it’s part of the plan.”
Koudounis also noted how falling rates impact sectors like housing. “We have to understand that when rates go down, when we hit 4%, the mortgage rates, housing market, went 6% for a 30-year. There was a tremendous amount of increase in applications because of that. That’s kind of the magic number.”
Koudounis believes this is a deliberate strategy. First, suppress yields to refinance at lower costs, then pivot to stimulus. “Once refinancing is done, they’ll open the monetary spigot and stimulate the economy. That’s when you’ll see the ‘face-ripping’ V-shaped recovery everyone’s talking about.”
While Wall Street focuses on tariff anxiety, Koudounis warned that it’s missing the bigger picture—pro-growth policies quietly shaping the economic landscape.
“We’re not talking enough about the nearly $6 trillion in U.S. investment commitments,” he said, pointing to firms like SoftBank, Oracle, OpenAI, Meta, and NVIDIA.
He also emphasized other economic drivers: reduced regulations, lower energy prices, and the potential for tax cuts.
“Oil has dropped from $80 to around $60. Regulations are being rolled back. And now, with everyone worried about tariffs, tax cuts are even more likely to pass. These are all major forces helping to revive the economy.”
Koudounis concluded by urging a shift in focus. “Don’t get distracted by fear. Look at what’s really happening beneath the surface—there’s a strategy, and it’s working.”
You can watch the full interview here.
