Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with the planet expected to repeatedly exceed a key international climate threshold of 1.5°C, according to new projections from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization.
The report, produced with the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, estimates a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will rise more than 1.5°C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The threshold was established under the 2015 Paris climate agreement as a target for limiting the worst impacts of climate change.
Researchers also found a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree mark and an 86% chance that one year will surpass the current record for Earth’s hottest year, set in 2024.
The projections are based on about 200 computer simulations using 13 climate models developed by research institutions around the world.
Scientists warn that even small increases in global temperatures can have major consequences. Previous U.N. assessments found that warming beyond 1.5 degrees increases the risks of extreme heat, biodiversity loss, and damage to vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs and glaciers.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the report, said sustained warming above the threshold could bring weather extremes beyond what many communities have previously experienced.
World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) says #GlobalTemperatures are likely to remain near record highs over the next five years. #WMO projects temperatures during 2026-2030 to be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average, with an 86% chance that at least one year… pic.twitter.com/HWPi60KRAH
— Upendrra Rai (@UpendrraRai) May 30, 2026
In an email, Otto said future heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events could exceed historical records, placing additional pressure on cities, agriculture, and infrastructure. She warned that the impacts could include higher death tolls, food price shocks, and more severe wildfires.
The report also highlights the role of El Niño, a natural climate pattern associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. Forecasters expect a strong El Niño to develop in the coming years, potentially lasting through 2028.
Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Meteorological Office and co-author of the report, said 2027 could challenge or surpass the global heat record set in 2024.
One of the report’s most striking findings concerns the Arctic. Researchers project the region will warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five years. Arctic winter temperatures are expected to average 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 baseline, while summer sea ice is projected to continue shrinking.
Scientists say the trend is driven by a feedback cycle in which melting ice exposes darker surfaces that absorb more solar energy, leading to additional warming.
The report also forecasts hotter and drier conditions across the Amazon basin, raising concerns about drought and wildfire risks. Scientists warn that worsening conditions could weaken the rainforest’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
In contrast, Africa’s Sahel region is expected to receive above-average rainfall, increasing the potential for flooding.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the findings show that efforts to curb global warming are still falling short. “Every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis,” Stiell said.
