Greece’s per capita GDP is projected to return to levels last seen between 2007 and 2010 by the early 2030s, according to a working paper released on Tuesday, May 13, by the Hellenic Parliament’s Budget Office.
The report presents two economic growth scenarios, each mapping a potential path back to pre-crisis prosperity, based on varying assumptions for investment and labor productivity growth.
In the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate annual investment growth rate of 4.0 percent and labor productivity growth of 1.38 percent—slightly below the historical average of 1.46 percent from 1974 to 2007, real per capita GDP would reach 2007 levels by 2032.
In the more optimistic scenario, assuming a higher investment growth rate of 6.6 percent and productivity gains of 1.85 percent annually, Greece could surpass its 2007 per capita GDP as early as 2030.
In both scenarios, the main engine of growth is productivity, supported by rising investment and capital deepening—meaning more and better-quality capital per worker. The report emphasizes that accelerating structural reforms is essential to sustain productivity growth and support a more dynamic and inclusive labor market.
The study also highlights imbalances in post-crisis capital recovery. While investment in machinery and equipment rebounded strongly between 2017 and 2024, averaging a 9.3 percent annual growth rate, investment in buildings and construction remains sluggish, declining by an average of 0.1 percent per year over the same period.
GDP per capita, a key measure of economic performance, reflects the average income and output per person and is often used as a proxy for overall living standards and economic well-being.
ΙMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva praised Greece’s progress in recent years at the IMF spring meetings in Washington, DC.
Georgieva highlighted that Greece now ranks among the top-performing economies in the European Union, and that “Growth is higher than the EU average. From deficits just a few years ago, Greece now records a surplus. And most importantly, the country is advancing with structural reforms that make it more competitive in a world of frequent shocks,” she noted.
Greece reported a mammoth 2024 primary budget surplus, thanks to higher tax revenues and a growing economy, according to recently released data by Eurostat and the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). The surplus amounted to 4.8 percent of Greece’s economic output last year, or 11.4 billion euros ($13.1 billion), making the country one of the few European Union nations to post a fiscal surplus.
Related: Greece Plans to Repay Bailout Loans Ten Years Earlier
